Initialized Predictions
We don't try to predict the end of the century, but next month, season, year or decade.
Goals
Running and storing initialized predictions is costly. More often than we might think, we can work with each other's runs and collaborate - if we knew they existed.
List of Simulations
| Experiment name | Experiment goal | model version | initialization type (perfect,assimilation) | member size | initializations (first, last, freq) | leads | forcing | further details | location on disk | location on tape | location of companion simulation (control,assimilation,historical) | contact (name, email) | (future) reference paper |
| DCPP CMIP6 | model comparison | multi model | assimilation | many | annually, mostly Nov 1st year before or Jan 1st | 120 months | transient SSP4.5 | multi-model | /work/ik1017/CMIP6/data/CMIP6/DCPP | DKRZ downloads replica | Boer et al. 2016 (GMD) doi:10/f89qdf | ||
| asp_esmControl_ens3xxx_m00x | find predictability horizon of atm. CO2 | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | perfect | 10 | 12 (Jan 1st random years) | 240 months | esm-piControl | prognostic atm. CO2, perfect-model framework | archived by packems | /hpss/arch/mh0727/m300524/src/mpiesm-1.2.01-release/experiments/Spring_and_Ilyina_2020_GRL_asp_esmControl_ensxxxx_mxxx_*.tar | /hpss/arch/mh0727/m300524/src/mpiesm-1.2.01-release/experiments/Spring_and_Ilyina_2020_GRL_vga0214_*.tar | Aaron Spring (aaron.spring@mpimet.mpg.de) | Spring & Ilyina (2020), GRL, doi:10/ggtbv2 |
| asp_PMassim_reconR_init18xx_m00x | find impact of different idealized indirect or direct reconstructions R for carbon cycle | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | perfect, direct & indirect | 5 | 19 (1860, 1896, every 2nd year Jan 1st) | 36 months | esm-piControl | prognostic atm. CO2, perfect-model (reconstruction) framework | /work/bm1124/m300524/experiments | not yet archived | control: vga0220a_Rerun reconstructions: asp_esmControl_PMassim_1850_R_over_2006 | Aaron Spring (aaron.spring@mpimet.mpg.de) | Spring et al. ESD (2021) to be submitted |
| Grand Ensemble | GE can be seen as perfect-model ensemble initialized in 1st 2006 | MPI-ESM1.1-LR | perfect | 3 | 100 | (scenarios diverge after) 10 years | transient RCPs | details | grand_ensemble | 3D on tape grand_ensemble | control grand_ensemble | data: grand_ensemble, approach: Aaron Spring (aaron.spring@mpimet.mpg.de) | Maher et al. (2019), JAMES doi:10/gf3kgt |
| asSEIKERAf_i8p4-LR | assimilation, reanalysis, 1958-today | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | from piControl + 2-phase 350yr spinup | 16 | Jan. 1st 1958 | CMIP6 historical + SSP45 | local EnKF ocean (EN4 profiles), nudging atmos (ERA40/ERAI/ERA5) | /work/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf/mpiesm-1.2.01p5/experiments | /hpss/arch/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf | Sebastian Brune (sebastian.brune@uni-hamburg.de) | Brune & Baehr (2020), WIREs Clim. Change 10.1002/wcc.637 | ||
| dkfen4_i2p1-LR | decadal predictions | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | assimilation asSEIKERAf_i8p4-LR | 16×5 = 80 | Nov. 1st 1960-2020 | 10 years | CMIP6 historical + SSP45 | direct init from asSEIKERAf_i8p4-LR, chunks of 16 with ATMO_DISTURBANCE <> 1 | /work/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf/mpiesm-1.2.01p5/experiments | /hpss/arch/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf | CMIP6 historical and SSP245 /mnt/lustre02/work/ik1017/CMIP6/data/CMIP6/CMIP/MPI-M/MPI-ESM1-2-LR/historical, (..)/ScenarioMIP/MPI-M/MPI-ESM1-2-LR/ssp245 | Sebastian Brune (sebastian.brune@uni-hamburg.de) | Brune & Baehr (2020), WIREs Clim. Change 10.1002/wcc.637 |
| baseline0 | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR & MR | from OMIP | 10 & 3 | 1960-2012 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/baseline0 | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/baseline0 | CMIP5 DECK | wolfgang.mueller@mpimet.mpg.de | Mueller et al. (2012) GRL https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053326 | |
| baseline1 | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR & MR | ORAS4/ERA40/interim | 10 & 5 | 1960-2018 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/baseline1 | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/baseline1 | CMIP5 DECK | holger.pohlmann@mpimet.mpg.de | Pohlmann et al. (2013) GRL https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL058051 | |
| droughtclip | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR | from OMIP | 3 | 1900-2009 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/droughtclip | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/droughtclip | CMIP5 DECK | wolfgang.mueller@mpimet.mpg.de | Mueller et al. (2014) GRL https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059259 | |
| prototype | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR | ff-GECCO & ff-ORAS4/ERA40/interim | 15 & 15 | 1960-2013 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/prototype | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/prototype | CMIP5 DECK | wolfgang.mueller@mpimet.mpg.de | Kroeger et al. (2018) Clim Dyn https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1 | |
| preop-dcpp | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM1.2-HR | ORAS4/ERA40/interim | 10 | 1960-2019 | 10 years | CMIP6 & SSP245 | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/preop-dcpp | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/preop-dcpp | CMIP6 DECK | holger.pohlmann@mpimet.mpg.de | Pohlmann et al. (2019) GRL https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084878 | |
| piC_processes_Jan | Determine mechanisms predictability | MPI-ESM1.2-MR | perfect | 10 | 35 (ENSO state based) | 24 months | /work/mj0060/m300755/mpiesm-landveg/experiments/s2d_vga0220_january | /hpss/arch/mj0060/m300755/experiments/s2d_vga0220_january | vga0220 | Istvan Dunkl (istvan.dunkl@mpimet.mpg.de) | Dunkl et al. (2021) ESD https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2021-38/ | ||
| piC_processes_July | Determine mechanisms predictability | MPI-ESM1.2-MR | perfect | 10 | 10 (ENSO state based) | 18 months | /work/mj0060/m300755/mpiesm-landveg/experiments/s2d_vga0220_july | /hpss/arch/mj0060/m300755/experiments/s2d_vga0220_july | vga0220 | Istvan Dunkl (istvan.dunkl@mpimet.mpg.de) |
Landmark papers
- Griffies, S. M., & Bryan, K. (1997). A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 13(7–8), 459–487. doi:10/ch4kc4
- Pohlmann, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Köhl, A., Stammer, D., & Marotzke, J. (2009). Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 22(14), 3926–3938. doi:10/cdvhcr
- Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., … Yeager, S. (2013). Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(2), 243–267. doi:10/f3cvw2
- Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. a. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., … Delworth, T. (2013). A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40(1–2), 245–272. doi:10/f4jjvf
- Marotzke, J., Müller, W. A., Vamborg, F. S. E., Becker, P., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel, K., Rust, H. W., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J. G., … Ziese, M. (2016). MiKlip: A National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), 2379–2394. doi:10/gddfck
- Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., & Eade, R. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9(10), 3751–3777. doi:10/f89qdf