====== Initialized Predictions ====== We don't try to predict the end of the century, but next month, season, year or decade. ===== Goals ===== Running and storing initialized predictions is costly. More often than we might think, we can work with each other's runs and collaborate - if we knew they existed. ===== List of Simulations ===== | **Experiment name** | **Experiment goal** | **model version**| **initialization type (perfect,assimilation)** | **member size** | **initializations (first, last, freq)** | **leads** | **forcing** | **further details** | **location on disk** | **location on tape** | **location of companion simulation (control,assimilation,historical)** | **contact (name, email)** | **(future) reference paper** | | DCPP CMIP6 | model comparison | multi model | assimilation | many | annually, mostly Nov 1st year before or Jan 1st | 120 months | transient SSP4.5 | multi-model | /work/ik1017/CMIP6/data/CMIP6/DCPP | | | DKRZ downloads replica | Boer et al. 2016 (GMD) [[https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3751/2016/|doi:10/f89qdf]] | | asp_esmControl_ens3xxx_m00x | find predictability horizon of atm. CO2 | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | perfect | 10 | 12 (Jan 1st random years) | 240 months | esm-piControl | prognostic atm. CO2, perfect-model framework | archived by packems | /hpss/arch/mh0727/m300524/src/mpiesm-1.2.01-release/experiments/Spring_and_Ilyina_2020_GRL_asp_esmControl_ensxxxx_mxxx_*.tar | /hpss/arch/mh0727/m300524/src/mpiesm-1.2.01-release/experiments/Spring_and_Ilyina_2020_GRL_vga0214_*.tar | Aaron Spring (aaron.spring@mpimet.mpg.de) | Spring & Ilyina (2020), GRL, [[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085311|doi:10/ggtbv2]] | | asp_PMassim_reconR_init18xx_m00x | find impact of different idealized indirect or direct reconstructions R for carbon cycle | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | perfect, direct & indirect | 5 | 19 (1860, 1896, every 2nd year Jan 1st) | 36 months | esm-piControl | prognostic atm. CO2, perfect-model (reconstruction) framework | /work/bm1124/m300524/experiments | not yet archived | control: vga0220a_Rerun reconstructions: asp_esmControl_PMassim_1850_R_over_2006 | Aaron Spring (aaron.spring@mpimet.mpg.de) | Spring et al. ESD (2021) to be submitted | | Grand Ensemble | GE can be seen as perfect-model ensemble initialized in 1st 2006 | MPI-ESM1.1-LR | perfect | 3 | 100 | (scenarios diverge after) 10 years |transient RCPs | details | [[analysis:pot_pourri:ruby:grand_ensemble:start]] | 3D on tape [[analysis:pot_pourri:ruby:grand_ensemble:start]] | control [[analysis:pot_pourri:ruby:grand_ensemble:start]] | data: [[analysis:pot_pourri:ruby:grand_ensemble:start]], approach: Aaron Spring (aaron.spring@mpimet.mpg.de) | Maher et al. (2019), JAMES [[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001639|doi:10/gf3kgt]] | | asSEIKERAf_i8p4-LR | assimilation, reanalysis, 1958-today | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | from piControl + 2-phase 350yr spinup | 16 | Jan. 1st 1958 | | CMIP6 historical + SSP45 | local EnKF ocean (EN4 profiles), nudging atmos (ERA40/ERAI/ERA5) | /work/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf/mpiesm-1.2.01p5/experiments | /hpss/arch/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf | | Sebastian Brune (sebastian.brune@uni-hamburg.de) | Brune & Baehr (2020), WIREs Clim. Change [[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.637|10.1002/wcc.637]] | | dkfen4_i2p1-LR | decadal predictions | MPI-ESM1.2-LR | assimilation asSEIKERAf_i8p4-LR | 16x5 = 80| Nov. 1st 1960-2020 | 10 years | CMIP6 historical + SSP45 | direct init from asSEIKERAf_i8p4-LR, chunks of 16 with ATMO_DISTURBANCE <> 1 | /work/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf/mpiesm-1.2.01p5/experiments | /hpss/arch/uo1075/decadal_system_mpi-esm-lr_enkf | CMIP6 historical and SSP245 /mnt/lustre02/work/ik1017/CMIP6/data/CMIP6/CMIP/MPI-M/MPI-ESM1-2-LR/historical, (..)/ScenarioMIP/MPI-M/MPI-ESM1-2-LR/ssp245 | Sebastian Brune (sebastian.brune@uni-hamburg.de) | Brune & Baehr (2020), WIREs Clim. Change [[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.637|10.1002/wcc.637]] | | baseline0 | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR & MR | from OMIP | 10 & 3 | 1960-2012 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/baseline0 | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/baseline0 | CMIP5 DECK | wolfgang.mueller@mpimet.mpg.de | Mueller et al. (2012) GRL [[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053326]] | | baseline1 | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR & MR | ORAS4/ERA40/interim | 10 & 5 | 1960-2018 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/baseline1 | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/baseline1 | CMIP5 DECK | holger.pohlmann@mpimet.mpg.de | Pohlmann et al. (2013) GRL [[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL058051]] | | droughtclip | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR | from OMIP | 3 | 1900-2009 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/droughtclip | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/droughtclip | CMIP5 DECK | wolfgang.mueller@mpimet.mpg.de | Mueller et al. (2014) GRL [[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059259]] | | prototype | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM-LR | ff-GECCO & ff-ORAS4/ERA40/interim | 15 & 15 | 1960-2013 | 10 years | CMIP5 & RCP4.5 | | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/prototype | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/prototype | CMIP5 DECK | wolfgang.mueller@mpimet.mpg.de | Kroeger et al. (2018) Clim Dyn [[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1]] | | preop-dcpp | MiKlip decadal prediction | MPI-ESM1.2-HR | ORAS4/ERA40/interim| 10 | 1960-2019 | 10 years |CMIP6 & SSP245 | | /work/bmx825/global/prod/archive/preop-dcpp | /hpss/arch/bmx825/global/preop-dcpp | CMIP6 DECK | holger.pohlmann@mpimet.mpg.de | Pohlmann et al. (2019) GRL [[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084878]] | | piC_processes_Jan | Determine mechanisms predictability | MPI-ESM1.2-MR | perfect | 10 | 35 (ENSO state based) | 24 months | | | /work/mj0060/m300755/mpiesm-landveg/experiments/s2d_vga0220_january | /hpss/arch/mj0060/m300755/experiments/s2d_vga0220_january | vga0220 | Istvan Dunkl (istvan.dunkl@mpimet.mpg.de) | Dunkl et al. (2021) ESD [[https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2021-38/]] | | piC_processes_July | Determine mechanisms predictability | MPI-ESM1.2-MR | perfect | 10 | 10 (ENSO state based) | 18 months | | | /work/mj0060/m300755/mpiesm-landveg/experiments/s2d_vga0220_july | /hpss/arch/mj0060/m300755/experiments/s2d_vga0220_july | vga0220 | Istvan Dunkl (istvan.dunkl@mpimet.mpg.de) | | ===== Landmark papers ===== * Griffies, S. M., & Bryan, K. (1997). A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 13(7–8), 459–487. [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s003820050177|doi:10/ch4kc4]] * Pohlmann, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Köhl, A., Stammer, D., & Marotzke, J. (2009). Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 22(14), 3926–3938. [[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1|doi:10/cdvhcr]] * Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., … Yeager, S. (2013). Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(2), 243–267. [[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1|doi:10/f3cvw2]] * Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. a. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., … Delworth, T. (2013). A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40(1–2), 245–272. [[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2|doi:10/f4jjvf]] * Marotzke, J., Müller, W. A., Vamborg, F. S. E., Becker, P., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel, K., Rust, H. W., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J. G., … Ziese, M. (2016). MiKlip: A National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), 2379–2394. [[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1|doi:10/gddfck]] * Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., & Eade, R. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9(10), 3751–3777. [[https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3751/2016/|doi:10/f89qdf]]